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Sensitivity of Philippines' Forest Tree Species to Climate Change: Policy Implications and Future Directions
Author
Kristine Garcia, Rodel D. Lasco, Florencia B Pulhin, Amor Ines, Bradfield Lyon, Antonio Alcantara and Edwin Combalicer
Year
2013
Parent Title
Proceedings of the International Symposium on Tropical Forest Ecosystem Science and Management
Publisher
Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarwak Campus
City of Publication
Bintulu, Malaysia
Pages
106-110
Call Number
PP0335-13
Abstract:
Forest ecosystem should be protected from various threats so they can sustainably provide the services for human well-being. In the Philippines, threats to forest ecosystem including vulnerable tree species caused by human activities could be exacerbated as well by climate change. Our study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the consequences of climate change on geographical distributions and habitat suitability of 14 threatened forest tree species in the Philippines. Based on the principle of maximum entropy, we utilized a machine algorithm called Maxent model to estimate a target probability distribution and habitat suitability of the selected species. The results of our study showed that seven species (Afzelia rhomboidea, Koordersiodendron pinnatum, Mangifera altissima, Shorea contorta, Shorea palosapis, Shorea polysperma, Vitex parviflora) will likely experience an increase in suitable habitat. On the other hand, the remaining seven species (Agathis philippinensis, Celtis luzonica, Dipterocarpus grandiflorus, Shorea guiso, Shorea negrosensis, Toona calantas, Vatica mangachapoi) were assessed to likely have a decrease in suitable habitat. The results of our study provided an initial understanding how forest tree species distribution in the Philippines will be affected by future climate. From these, we identified some policy recommendations relevant to biodiversity conservation and management in forest ecosystem. We concluded that the results of the study could be used as well as basis in formulating appropriate science-based adaptation policies, strategies and measures that could enhance the resilience and safeguard the ecosystem services of the threatened forest tree species and their natural ecosystems to future climate.
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