Global companies will need to “radically change their production models and sourcing relationships” for coffee in response to climate change, writes Alejandro Litovsky, founder and CEO of the Earth Security Group in an article in The Guardian.
The Arabica variety of coffee makes up 70 per cent of coffee consumed, but it is sensitive to increases in temperature. In Brazil, the largest producer of high-quality Arabica coffee, a quarter of the country’s production is under direct threat from climate change. In Tanzania, yields have fallen by 46 per cent over the past 50 years, with similar impacts in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Kenya.
Research by International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) suggests Arabica crops will need to move 300 to 500m higher in order to survive. The alternative is to switch to the Robusta variety (grown extensively in Vietnam and Indonesia) which has higher yields but is considered lower quality. Either strategy could however have serious impacts, including deforestation, conflict over land, food security and water scarcity.
Businesses need to start thinking about alternatives, suggests Litovsky. One such alternative is shade-grown coffee produced in agroforestry systems. In these systems, trees help to keep the coffee plants cool and there are benefits for biodiversity, in pest control benefits and lower use of fertilizers.
Despite these benefits, and the fact that shade-grown coffee was the norm for coffee production prior to the 1970s, its market share has reduced by 20 per cent since 1996.
“The hope is that the greater risks looming on the coffee industry will unlock a future where ecosystem service innovation and resilience become the only option for a truly sustainable business model for coffee production,” concludes Litovsky.
Read the full story: Your morning espresso could be about to get a lot more expensive
