2. THE HISTORICAL SETTING

2.3 Trends in tree growing outside gazetted forests

In the early 1980s a comprehensive study of energy demand and supply in Kenya was carried out under a project called the Kenyan Woodfuel Project. The Beijer Institute was instrumental in implementing the project in collaboration with various national institutions and foreign donors. A summary of the study was published under the title "Energy and Development in Kenya: Opportunities and Constraints" (O'Keefe et al., 1984). The findings of the study were alarming. Stocks of wood were found to be depleting rapidly since the consumption of wood for energy purposes far exceeded yields. Further, demand was projected to increase from 20 million tonnes per year in 1980 to 50 million tonnes per year in 2000. If tree growing was not intensified, the annual increment in yield was expected to decrease from 11 million tonnes in 1980 to only 5 million tonnes in 2000 due to over-exploitation. As a whole, there was a large and increasing gap between demand and supply of fuel, and the standing stock of wood was projected to decline by about 30% in the period 1980-2000.

After this alarming report, serious efforts were made to intensify tree growing on farm land. Numerous tree-planting projects were started and general awareness of the importance of trees increased.

Figure 2.1 National fuelwood supply and demand (from O'Keefe et al., 1984)

Another study carried out in the early 1990s (Holmgren, 1992a) presents a more encouraging picture. Preliminary results from this study indicate that the standing stock of woody biomass outside forests is increasing in most parts of the country. According to the study more than half of the planted tree volume in the country is on farmland, and hence farmers in Kenya are now managing a larger resource of planted trees than the Government Forest Department.

In ASAL areas, only three Districts, Baringo, Samburu and Turkana, show a negative trend. In high-potential areas the preliminary results from the survey indicate that the standing planted volume is increasing by 4—5% annually, i.e. faster than population growth of about 3.8%.

It is also interesting to note that in high-potential areas the volume of planted trees is higher where the population is dense and lower where people are fewer. This may be the result of more intensive land use and tree growing to meet people's needs for fuel and other commodities. In fact, if this preliminary finding is correct, the high population density in the highlands may have contributed to better tree cover in those areas.

Figure 2.2 Planted tree volume outside forests compared to population density by District in high-potential areas (after Holmgren, 1992a).

The reasons for the discrepancies in the results of these two studies are not clear. Either the studies themselves have had certain weaknesses leading to these conflicting results, or perhaps these are real signs that farmers in Kenya, with support from extension workers, have managed to increase the woody biomass on the land they control.

But even if the picture is encouraging at this macro level, it is clear that there are still serious problems to be addressed in agroforestry extension. In most areas there is a shortfall in fuel, building materials and other commodities. Women still have to use crop residues as fuel, or to walk considerable distances to obtain fuelwood. Prices for poles are high, and the trees that are important for human food and medicine are rapidly disappearing in many areas. Agricultural productivity is on the decline due to increased prices of fertilizers and declining quality of the soils. In recent years, per capita food production has gone down and the country has been forced to import food to meet domestic needs. Income levels in the rural areas are far from satisfactory.

The growing of trees has the potential to alleviate many land-use problems and uplift the people's standard of living, as we shall see in the following chapters.

Figure 2.3 The trees and shrubs in an agroforestry system have many uses